Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants

Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

Classification and analysis of integrating frameworks in multiscale modelling

Chemical engineers are turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling approaches into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy. There is, however, little advice available on the best strategy to use in constructing a multiscale model. This paper presents a starting point for the systematic analysis of multiscale models by defining several integrating frameworks for linking models at different scales. It briefly explores how the nature of the information flow between the models at the different scales is influenced by the choice of framework, and presents some restrictions on model-framework compatibility. The concepts are illustrated with reference to the modelling of a catalytic packed bed reactor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping and characterising subtropical estuarine landscapes using aerial photography and GIS for potential application in wildlife conservation and management

Coarse-resolution thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data and implemented in GIS play an important role in coastal and marine conservation, research and management. Here, we describe an approach for fine-resolution mapping of land-cover types using aerial photography and ancillary GIs and ground data in a large (100 x 35 km) subtropical estuarine system (Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia). We have developed and implemented a classification scheme representing 24 coastal (subtidal, intertidal. mangrove, supratidal and terrestrial) cover types relevant to the ecology of estuarine animals, nekton and shorebirds. The accuracy of classifications of the intertidal and subtidal cover types, as indicated by the agreement between the mapped (predicted) and reference (ground) data, was 77-88%, depending on the zone and level of generalization required. The variability and spatial distribution of habitat mosaics (landscape types) across the mapped environment were assessed using K-means clustering and validated with Classification and Regression Tree models. Seven broad landscape types could be distinguished and ways of incorporating the information on landscape composition into site-specific conservation and field research are discussed. This research illustrates the importance and potential applications of fine-resolution mapping for conservation and management of estuarine habitats and their terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unicellular pheromone glands of the pentatomid bug Nezara viridula (Heteroptera : Insecta): Ultrastructure, classification, and proposed function

Male Nezara viridula produce sex pheromones from many independent single cells, each with a duct that opens onto the ventral abdominal surface. Despite the presence of along duct and an associated end complex (in the form of a cupule and microvillus saccule), the structural organization of the cells that comprise the gland conform to Class 1 epidermal gland cell classification : a single cell surrounds the entire secretory complex. Each cuticular cupule contains a central bed of filaments and opens into a narrow tubular ductule that leads from the base of the cupule through the epidermis to the cuticle to open externally as a pore. The cuticle of the cupule is continuous with that of the ductule and has the appearance of three layers, although the inner (middle) layer may be a gap formed during construction of the complex. In young adult males, just molted, the ultrastructure of the cells and their inclusions indicate that they are not active. The region of the cell that is distal to the abdominal cuticle is reduced and the proximal region, surrounding the duct, is enlarged when compared with sexually mature (3-4 weeks old) adult males. At maturity the pheromone cells are enlarged distally around the cupule, but are reduced to a narrow sleeve proximally, around the ductule. Two characteristic cell profiles are evident, based on the shape of the cupule and the organelle content. Type A shows a broad opening to the cupule, an abundance of mitochondria, and few vesicular bodies. Type B has an elongated, narrow, vase-like opening to the cupule, few mitochondria, and numerous vesicular bodies. Type B cells are smaller and more abundant than Type A. Distribution within the epidermal layer also differs. It is likely that the different types represent cells producing different secretion profiles. However, the secretions retained by the standard fixation protocol within mature cells of both types look similar and appear to collect as crystalline bodies within the lumen. This may represent a common storage mechanism.

Tuning pattern classifier parameters using a genetic algorithm with an application in mobile robotics

Support vector machines (SVMs) have recently emerged as a powerful technique for solving problems in pattern classification and regression. Best performance is obtained from the SVM its parameters have their values optimally set. In practice, good parameter settings are usually obtained by a lengthy process of trial and error. This paper describes the use of genetic algorithm to evolve these parameter settings for an application in mobile robotics.

The utility and limitations of chloroplast DNA analysis for identifying native British oak stands and for guiding replanting strategy

We report a method using variation in the chloroplast genome (cpDNA) to test whether oak stands of unknown provenance are of native and/or local origin. As an example, a sample of test oaks, of mostly unknown status in relation to nativeness and localness, were surveyed for cpDNA type. The sample comprised 126 selected trees, derived from 16 British seed stands, and 75 trees, selected for their superior phenotype (201 tree samples in total). To establish whether these two test groups are native and local, their cpDNA type was compared with that of material from known autochthonous origin (results of a previous study which examined variation in 1076 trees from 224 populations distributed across Great Britain). In the previous survey of autochthonous material, four cpDNA types were identified as native; thus if a test sample possessed a new haplotype then it could be classed as non-native. Every one of the 201 test samples possessed one of the four cpDNA types found within the autochthonous sample. Therefore none could be proven to be introduced and, on this basis, was considered likely to be native. The previous study of autochthonous material also found that cpDNA variation was highly structured geographically and, therefore, if the cpDNA type of the test sample did not match that of neighbouring autochthonous trees then it could be considered to be non-local. A high proportion of the seed stand group (44.2 per cent) and the phenotypically superior trees (58.7 per cent) possessed a cpDNA haplotype which matched that of the neighbouring autochthonous trees and, therefore, can be considered as local, or at least cannot be proven to be introduced. The remainder of the test sample could be divided into those which did not grow in an area of overall dominance (18.7 per cent of seed stand trees and 28 per cent of phenotypically superior) and those which failed to match the neighbouring autochthonous haplotype (37.1 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively). Most of the non-matching test samples were located within 50 km of an area dominated by a matching autochthonous haplotype (96.0 per cent and 93.5 per cent, respectively), and potentially indicates only local transfer. Whilst such genetic fingerprinting tests have proven useful for assessing the origin of stands of unknown provenance, there are potential limitations to using a marker from the chloroplast genome (mostly adaptively neutral) for classifying seed material into categories which have adaptive implications. These limitations are discussed, particularly within the context of selecting adaptively superior material for restocking native forests.

Estimating the specific heat capacity of starch-water-glycerol systems as a function of temperature and compositions

Increasing interests in the use of starch as biodegradable plastic materials demand, amongst others, accurate information on thermal properties of starch systems particularly in the processing of thermoplastic starch (TPS), where plasticisers (water and glycerol) are added. The specific heat capacity of starch-water-glycerol mixtures was determined within a temperature range of 40-120degreesC. A modulated temperature differential scanning calorimeter (MTDSC) was employed and regression equations were obtained to predict the specific heat capacity as a function of temperature, water and glycerol content for four maize starches of differing amylose content (0 - 85%). Generally, temperature and water content are directly proportional to the specific heat capacity of the systems, but the influence of glycerol content on the thermal property varied according to the starch type.

Prospective study of individual, social, and environmental predictors of physical activity: women's leisure running

Background: Understanding and influencing the determinants of physical activity is an important public health challenge. We used prospective data to examine the influence of individual, social, and environmental factors on physical activity behaviour, using regular running as the behavioural model. Methods: Over 500 middle-aged women completed two consecutive questionnaires in 2000 and 2002. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine factors predicting adoption of and regression from regular leisure-time running during the follow-up. Results: Women who frequently used behavioural change skills were more likely to adopt regular running (OR=4.0, CI=1.7-9.5). There was an interaction between the enjoyment of running and family support: those who rated enjoyment of running high and reported high family support were less likely to adopt running (OR= 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5). Women who reported infrequent use of motives were more likely (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.6-6.9) to regress from regular running. There was an interaction between perceived health and the neighbourhood environment: those who perceived themselves to be in poor health and had an unattractive neighbourhood were more likely (OR = 2.7, CI = 0.9-8.3) to regress from regular running. Conclusions: Behavioural skills and enjoyment may be of particular importance for the adoption of regular activity; social support and an aesthetically attractive neighbourhood are likely to have a key role in encouraging maintenance. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fine root respiration in the mangrove Rhizophora mangle over variation in forest stature and nutrient availability

Root respiration uses a significant proportion of photosynthetically fixed carbon (C) and is a globally important source of C liberated from soils. Mangroves, which are an important and productive forest resource in many tropical and subtropical countries, sustain a high ratio of root to shoot biomass which may indicate that root respiration is a particularly important component in mangrove forest carbon budgets. Mangroves are often exposed to nutrient pollution from coastal waters. Here we assessed the magnitude of fine root respiration in mangrove forests in Belize and investigated how root respiration is influenced by nutrient additions. Respiration rates of excised fine roots of the mangrove, Rhizophora mangle L., were low (4.01 +/- 0.16 nmol CO2 g(-1) s(-1)) compared to those measured in temperate tree species at similar temperatures. In an experiment where trees where fertilized with nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) in low productivity dwarf forests (1-2 m height) and more productive, taller (47 m height) seaward fringing forests, respiration of fine roots did not vary consistently with fertilization treatments or with forest stature. Fine roots of taller fringe trees had higher concentrations of both N and P compared to dwarf trees. Fertilization with P enhanced fine root P concentrations in both dwarf and fringe trees, but reduced root N concentrations compared to controls. Fertilization with N had no effect on root N or P concentrations. Unlike photosynthetic C gain and growth, which is strongly limited by P availability in dwarf forests at this site, fine root respiration (expressed on a mass basis) was variable, but showed no significant enhancements with nutrient additions. Variation in fine root production and standing biomass are, therefore, likely to be more important factors determining C efflux from mangrove sediments than variations in fine root respiration per unit mass.

Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

Efficient update and retrieval of objects in a multiresolution geospatial database

Many emerging applications benefit from the extraction of geospatial data specified at different resolutions for viewing purposes. Data must also be topologically accurate and up-to-date as it often represents real-world changing phenomena. Current multiresolution schemes use complex opaque data types, which limit the capacity for in-database object manipulation. By using z-values and B+trees to support multiresolution retrieval, objects are fragmented in such a way that updates to objects or object parts are executed using standard SQL (Structured Query Language) statements as opposed to procedural functions. Our approach is compared to a current model, using complex data types indexed under a 3D (three-dimensional) R-tree, and shows better performance for retrieval over realistic window sizes and data loads. Updates with the R-tree are slower and preclude the feasibility of its use in time-critical applications whereas, predictably, projecting the issue to a one-dimensional index allows constant updates using z-values to be implemented more efficiently.